From Survival Mode to Strategic Advantage: Inside the Reset of Canadian Real Estate
What I learned from walking into a room full of developers, lenders, economists, and operators at the Vancouver Dealmakers Event—on the frontlines of the most uncertain cycle in decades.
There’s a specific kind of honesty that only shows up in the middle of a down cycle. No fluff, no bravado—just a room full of builders, lenders, and capital partners telling the truth.
That was the tone at the 2025 Dealmakers Conference in Vancouver. Over the course of one packed day, we heard from some of the country’s top minds in residential real estate, housing economics, and institutional investment. And the message was clear:
This isn’t just a soft patch. It’s a full-cycle reset.
But beneath the sobering stats was something else—clarity. If you know where to look, opportunities are taking shape.
The Voices in the Room
Some of the most respected names in Canadian CRE took the stage to break down what’s really happening:
Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, offered the macro lens: employment data, buyer sentiment, and where interest rates are headed next.
Neil Chrystal, CEO of Polygon Homes, spoke candidly about developer survival tactics and pricing decisions.
Cyrus Navabi, President of Qualex-Landmark, brought a no-BS view on purpose-built rental, incentives, and municipal politics.
Brad Jones, Chief Development Officer at Wesgroup, laid out the real cost of delivery—and how policy is failing to keep up.
Stephan Greer, VP at Zonda, walked through hard data on presales, cancellations, and rental absorption.
Alex Messina, Managing Director at Nicola Wealth, explained how institutional capital is still moving—but only into de-risked deals.
Jordan Carlson, EVP at Anthem Properties, offered the cross-asset view, from suburban retail to high-rise rental.
Peter Block, VP of Real Estate Lending at CIBC, unpacked how lenders are thinking about land and debt in the current climate.
Cynthia Jagger, EVP at CBRE Capital Markets, reminded us just how hard it is right now to answer a basic question: what is land actually worth?
A Cooling Market That Still Feels Unstable
The headlines are familiar by now: unemployment rising, buyer sentiment weakening, and GDP flirting with contraction. But the nuance matters.
Ali Wolf opened with this:
“We’ve had two consecutive months of job losses across Canada. Unemployment is at its highest level since 2016—excluding COVID—and it’s now widespread across industries. Even people who still have their jobs are uneasy.”
Even with the Bank of Canada implementing seven rate cuts—the most aggressive in the G7—consumers remain cautious. Mortgage rates have eased, but many buyers believe they’ll drop further. So they wait.
“It’s not that people don’t want to buy,” said Wolf. “They just don’t feel confident enough to act.”
Concrete Presales: A Story of Oversupply and Undersubscription
If there’s one sector showing clear signs of distress, it’s the pre-construction condo market—especially in concrete high-rises.
Over 16,000 concrete units were released in Q2 2025, but only 2,000 units sold.
Nearly 9,000 units are now considered at risk of cancellation.
In many cases, sales centers are open weekends only, and absorption is stalling.
The only meaningful success story? Burnaby. But even that came at a price.
“We’re seeing developers slashing $100,000 per unit just to hit 30% sold,” said Stephan Greer.
“The rest of the region? Projects are launching and immediately stalling.”
Polygon’s Neil Chrystal didn’t sugarcoat it:
“We’re not chasing margins right now. We’re chasing movement. In many cases, we’re selling at or below replacement cost just to stay alive.”
Purpose-Built Rental: More Units, Sharper Incentives, New Behaviours
This year is bringing a record wave of purpose-built rental supply in Metro Vancouver: over 5,000 units projected in 2025 alone.
But demand has shifted.
Studios and junior one-bedrooms are struggling to lease.
Two-bedrooms and larger formats are seeing stronger absorption.
Incentives are no longer offered across the board—they’re being surgically applied to underperforming unit types.
Zonda’s research shows a rise in roommate-style living, particularly among young professionals. Some developers are even converting studio inventory into furnished, short-term-ready product.
“The absorption pickup in Q2 surprised some people,” said Greer. “But the message is clear—renter behavior has changed. It’s about space, flexibility, and value.”
Capital Is Still Flowing—But Only to De-Risked Deals
While some developers struggle to hit presale thresholds, capital isn’t completely on pause. It’s just more selective.
“There’s capital out there,” said Nicola Wealth’s Alex Narod, “but only for shovel-ready, materially de-risked projects with clean execution plans. You need to bring certainty to the table.”
JV models are dominating. 50/50 equity splits are now standard.
CMHC financing is losing favour due to rising premiums and slower timelines.
Conventional debt is now a viable—and in some cases, preferred—alternative.
“We’re seeing a shift away from relying on MLI Select,” said one Vancouver-based fund manager off-stage. “The numbers just don’t pencil with all the premiums and constraints.”
The Real Friction: Policy, Permitting, and Political Paralysis
Developers aren’t just fighting the market. They’re fighting the city.
“We had a 200-unit rental project delayed by a full month—because of one maple tree,” said Cyrus Navabi. “Another stalled over a bird-feeder requirement.”
These stories drew uncomfortable laughter from the room. But no one was surprised.
Wesgroup’s Brad Jones added:
“Construction costs are up 38% since 2018. Seventeen percent of that was just in the past year. And it’s not just labor and materials—it’s policy drag, approvals, and fees.”
What’s Still Working
Despite the uncertainty, a few segments continue to show stability—or even upside:
Senior housing is outperforming, particularly independent living models with light services.
Retail, especially grocery-anchored suburban plazas, remains underbuilt and in demand.
Multifamily rental—if well-located, well-amenitized, has some uniquely wellness-forward furnished units, and appropriately unit-mixed—still attracts institutional equity.
First Nations partnerships are opening new doors to land access and long-term collaboration.
The Bigger Picture: This Is the Reset
Almost every speaker, from capital to construction, agreed on one thing: we are in the middle of a full-cycle correction.
But many are already looking ahead.
“We’ve been in a recession—we just don’t want to call it that,” said Chrystal.
“The next 12 months will be tough. But 2026 is where we’ll likely see the turn.”
Developers are quietly repositioning projects. Lenders are recalibrating risk. Capital is circling—but waiting for deals that make sense.
“We’re not out of the woods yet,” said Jordan Carlson. “But when interest rates normalize and the approvals start flowing again, the players who stayed disciplined through this will be the ones to watch.”
Final Thought
The most positive aspect of this is that governments and First Nations are finally engaging in more open communication. We will need their buy-in to expedite and enrich the process for developers.
The smart money is focused on de-risking projects, tightening assumptions, and underwriting for what comes after the stall.
If you’re holding land, managing a pipeline, or raising capital, this is the moment to act with clarity—not caution.
Because when the cycle turns, it won’t give you advance notice.
And the winners will already be out of the gate.
BOTTOM LINE
In every correction lies a quiet transfer of power—from those who waited for certainty to those who built through the noise. The 2025 reset isn’t a pause; it’s a proving ground. The market will recover, but only disciplined operators and clear-eyed investors will be ready when it does.
Level Up Mortgages is a mortgage broker team focused on helping the self employed, new immigrants, non-residents, and investors, access best rate and alternative lending in Canada. We have been nominated for best up and coming broker in Canada in 2021 and have been on CTV News and various publications because of our education-first approach to helping you always stay a step ahead of the process. Reach out to us for access to our first-time buyer course or a mortgage strategy session.
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Paul Davidescu (www.levelupmortgages.com)
Level Up Mortgages
604-809-3188
paul(at)levelupmortgages.com
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